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Long Island Goes Solar 4/29 & 5/7/08

LIPA Public Hearing Dates (see attachment):

Tuesday, April 29 10:00AM – 12:00PM Nassau County Legislative Chamber,1550 Franklin Avenue,Mineola, NY

Wednesday, May 7 10:00AM – 12:00PM Brookhaven Town Hal lOne Independence Hill Farmingville, NY

Letter to the Editor – Peter Maniscalco, Newsday (April 24)

Energy for LI still in debate – It took Newsday 40-plus years, but you finally have it right on Long Island energy policy. I’m stunned. Hallelujah! This newspaper was a die-hard advocate for Shoreham and nuclear power for 30 years. Then, on the Broadwater issue, you tried to be a power broker. Rather than demand the protection of Long Island Sound, Newsday was willing to accept a deal that would have allowed the Broadwater monstrosity to be built, if only Broadwater would kick back some money into Long Island ‘s energy coffers. Investment in our energy and economic future must focus on conservation and renewable energy. These energy choices will be the foundation of Long Island ‘s new economy that will create many “green collar” jobs during the present economic slowdown.

Laszlo Kiss“About Saving a Planet low carbon housing (April 23) – Laurie Farber and Starflower visit Kiss in Sag Harbor .

LIPA’s Time in the Sun (April 23) – Mark Harrington

Earth Day every day by Kevin Law (April 22) – 50 MW of solar power for LI.

Newsday Editorial: Here comes the sun (April 20)

The roofs of Long Island schools are a ripe resource for harvesting energy, and as oil costs soar, the time for such projects is now.

Jones Beach wind farm proposal triples in size. – Mark Harrington. (April 16). Winergy Power, a Hauppauge wind-energy startup, this week submitted a new proposal to a state power agency seeking to place a 940-megawatt wind farm in the South Shore waters — a plan that would place between 190 and 260 giant turbines across miles of ocean. (The number of turbines would be dictated by the output of turbine technology at the time the project starts in 2012, Winergy

said.)

LIPA is preparing to update its Energy Master Plan. LIPA intends to use the following process to develop the plan:

* Publish a draft outline of the Energy Master Plan contents.
* Solicit public input on the draft outline.
* Develop a Draft Energy Master Plan based on the outline and the public input received.
* Hold public hearings on the Draft Energy Master Plan.
* Revise the plan based on the public hearings and new information that may become available after the preparation of the Draft. Issue a Final Energy Master Plan for the consideration of the LIPA Board of Trustees.

This document is the draft outline of the Energy Master Plan contents, referred to in the first bullet above. The LIPA Energy Master Plan is intended to provide a blueprint for Long Islands electric energy future. It will articulate LIPAs strategy for developing a balanced and comprehensive electric energy policy. It will discuss the methodologies employed and the rigorous technical analyses undertaken in support of crafting the plan. It will also incorporate valuable oral and written commentary received from LIPAs concerned customers and other interested parties. Additionally, the LIPA Energy Master Plan will include a discussion of the critical education activities which are underway to disseminate information regarding how changes in the electric industry impact LIPA and its customers. In order to comprehensively address these issues, LIPA proposes to organize the LIPA Energy Master Plan and supporting documentation as follows:

* Volume 1, Strategic Plan, will provide a description of LIPAs Energy Master Plan for the period 2008 through 2017;
* Volume 2, Energy Primer, will provide an overview on the current state of the energy industry, background on LIPA, and a review of the initiatives LIPA is undertaking to promote customer understanding of the critical energy issues facing Long Island today;
* Volume 3, Technical Report, will provide detailed information regarding the planning process and the planning methodologies employed to create the Energy Master Plan;
* Volume 4, Response to Comments, will summarize the comments received during the Energy Master Plan related public hearings, organized according to similarity of contents; and
* Volume 5, Appendices, will provide additional and supporting details on studies, methodologies, and criteria used in the planning analysis.

The content of each of these volumes is discussed on the following pages.

Volume 1 Strategic Plan
1 Overview

Volume 1, Strategic Plan, will provide a description of LIPAs Energy Master Plan for the period 2008 through 2017. It will contain LIPAs Vision and Mission Statements and a summary of the Strategic Objectives of the LIPA Energy Master Plan. The keys goals, targets, and means to achieve targets will be identified, as well as an explanation of their inter-relationships and how they drive and impact the formation of the Strategic Plan.
2 Action and Policy Plans

LIPAs Energy Master Plan is proposed to consist of the following plan components:

* Energy Efficiency and Demand Reduction Plan,
* Renewable and Distributed Generation Plan,
* Power Supply Plan,
* Transmission and Distribution Plan,
* Environmental Plan,
* Customer Service Market Plan
* Risk Management Plan, and
* Fuel management Plan.

The component plans presented here represent the culmination of an extensive and ongoing planning process that addressed both resource adequacy and infrastructure development for a 10-year planning horizon. Based on the current resource situation, the anticipated reserve requirements, and the available options to meet those requirements, LIPA will develop a flexible strategy that allows it to respond and adapt to changing conditions in the industry and the market. The component plans will be multi-faceted in approach, designed to address both short and long-term requirements.
3 Description of Plan Elements

This section will provide detailed descriptions of the specific elements of LIPAs Action and Policy Plans presented previously in this volume. Each plan component will be described in its own section and will identify individual projects or programs and describe their status, targets and goals.

Volume 2 Energy Primer
Overview

Volume 2, the Energy Primer, will provide a resource for LIPA customers who wish to better understand the current state of the electric energy industry and the initiatives that LIPA is undertaking to provide reliable, cost-effective, efficient, and clean energy solutions to Long Island. Volume 2 is proposed to be organized into six sections as follows:

* Section 1 will be an overview.
* Section 2 will provide background on LIPA, its history and a description of its service territory and electric system.
* Section 3 will provide a discussion of the LIPA planning process including initiatives to acquire needed resources, provide customer education programs to promote customer understanding of the critical energy issues facing Long Island today, and LIPA efforts for sound operation of the electric system.
* Section 4 will discuss changes and the evolution of the energy industry including: federal, regional, and state initiatives; fuel markets; environmental matters; renewable and other sources of energy. It will also provide a description of the relationships LIPA has with various organizations and government agencies.
* Section 5 will describe the communication channels LIPA uses to provide customers with timely information regarding energy issues.
* Section 6 will offer a list of definitions for commonly used energy industry terms that can be used as a reference by the reader when reviewing LIPAs Energy Master Plan.

Volume 3 Technical Report
1 Overview

Volume 3, Technical Report, will provide information regarding the planning process and the results which drive the Energy Master Plan. Volume 3 will contain four sections as follows:

* Section 1 will be an overview.
* Section 2 will be a status report which highlights LIPA actions, major accomplishments and issues encountered during implementation of the 2004-2013 Energy Plan.
* Section 3 will provide a description of LIPAs generation, transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure. It will also summarize the Long Island economy, changes in the economic climate and describe LIPA’s electric energy requirements. Infrastructure enhancements made since LIPAs inception will also be described in this section.
* Section 4 will contain the assumptions, analyses, and results obtained from the various planning processes described in Volume 5 (e.g. resource, transmission, distribution, environment, risk, customer service etc.) and offer key observations and conclusions about Long Islands future energy requirements. Discussions will be organized around each sub-element of the energy planning process: the fuel price forecast, the energy and peak load forecast, the demand-side plan and clean energy analysis, the resource plan, the transmission and distribution plan.

The Resource Planning (energy efficiency, renewables, power supply) portion will contain an evaluation of the need for new resources based on a probabilistic analysis of risks, a screening of various alternatives on a stand-alone basis, a comparison of alternative resource plans based on an integrated analysis of selected resources with the existing system, a sensitivity analysis of these alternative resource plans, a probabilistic assessment of alternative resource plans and a recommended resource plan. The appendix of this Draft Outline provides three tables that describe the following: The alternative technologies that will be screened; The alternative resource scenarios that will be evaluated; and, The evaluation metrics that will be used in develop the plan.

The Transmission and Distribution Planning Analysis section will discuss the transmission and distribution planning studies that drive the need for infrastructure maintenance and development. Discussion will focus on how these study results are incorporated into LIPAs strategic plan.

The Environmental Planning Analysis will describe current and potential environmental regulations, alternative compliance strategies and LIPAs strategic approach to compliance.

The Customer Service Planning Analysis will discuss LIPAs current multi-pronged approach to ensuring customer satisfaction by meeting customer expectations for service, reliability and, cost.

The Risk Management and Fuel Management Planning Analysis sections will describe LIPAs efforts to manage risk and manage fuel as well as options that are being studied.

Volume 4 Responses to Comments

Volume 4, Response to Comments, will synthesize comments received by LIPA on both the Energy Master Plan Outline issued in January 2008 and the Draft Energy Master Plan planned to be issued in the summer 2008. The Draft Energy Master Plan will include responses to comments on the Energy Master Plan Outline. The Final Energy Master Plan will include responses to comments received on both the Energy Master Plan Outline and the Draft Energy Master Plan.
1 Summary of Commentators

In compiling the record of public commentary, LIPA will make every attempt to accurately represent the position of all public hearing participants. All commentators will be listed individually. LIPA will make a diligent effort to address all oral and written comments and recommendations received that pertain to the development of the Energy Master Plan. Transcripts of the Draft Energy Master Plan Public Hearings will be posted on LIPAs Web site, www.lipower.org.
2 Responses to Comments on Energy Master Plan Outline

The comments received on the Energy Master Plan Outline will be organized on a topical basis to facilitate the readers efficient review of public commentary and LIPAs responses. Comments will be grouped according to similarity of contents and LIPAs energy planning objectives as presented in the Energy Master Plan. A response may address more than one comment. In that instance, the response will be placed at the end of the series of comments.
3 Responses to Comments on Draft Energy Master Plan

The comments received on the Draft Energy Master Plan will be treated in the same way in the Final Energy Master Plan.

Volume 5 Appendices
Appendix A Energy Plan 2004-2013 Status Report

This section will present a status report on each program identified in the 2004 Energy Plan.
Appendix B Energy Plan 2004-2013 Follow-up Studies & Reports

This section provides follow-up information relative studies and reports LIPA committed to providing as part of the 2004-2013 Energy Planning process.
Appendix C LIPA & Other Energy Related Web Links
Appendix D Long-Range Forecast of Energy Requirements

This section will provide LIPAs long term forecast of peak load, energy requirements and sales.
Appendix E Emerging T&D Technologies

This section will provide a summary of emerging transmission and distribution technologies that may be available to LIPA during the planning period.
Appendix F Energy Planning Process

This section will describe the processes and sub-processes used to develop the energy plan, the tools used to support the process, and the criteria that frame the process.
Appendix G Transmission & Distribution Planning Criteria & Guidelines

This section will provide a copy of the Transmission & Distribution Planning Criteria & Guidelines used to develop the system.
Appendix H Design and Application Standards

This section will provide Design and Application standards that are used to design the system.

Alternative Technologies Considered

The alternative technologies shown in Table 1 will be screened during the development of the LIPA Energy Master Plan. Options considered will include peak load reduction programs, energy efficiency programs, generation options, the option to retire or continue operations, renewable resource options, re-power options at existing facilities, and transmission options both on and off Long Island.
Table 1  Alternative Technologies Considered
Supply Options Transmission Options
Generic On-Island CombinedCycle Loss Reduction
Generic On-Island CT LMS 100 CC NUSCO Upgrade 1
Caithness Combined-Cycle NUSCO Upgrade 2
Generic Off-Island CombinedCycle Neptune Cable (RB)
Combined-Cycle CT LM6000 Neptune Cable (UDR)
Simple-Cycle CT LM6000 PJM Cable II (RB)
Generic Off-Island Coal PJM Cable II (UDR)
Mobile Generating Units Neptune Cable w/Marcus Hook
Fuel Cell Stack Cross-Sound Cable
Pratt & Whitney (Twin Pac)
Off-Island Nuclear
Efficiency Options Renewable Options
Clean Energy Initiative Landfill Waste-to-Energy
ELI Base Program Barrett 1,2, Convert to B20 Diesel
ELI Advanced & Accelerated Program East Hampton, Convert to B20 Diesel
Intelligent Metering Resource Recovery
Time-based Pricing On-Island CT Bio-Diesel
Repowering Options Photovoltaic Roof
Barrett Repowering On-Shore Wind
Northport Repowering Off-Shore Wind
Port Jeff Repowering Off-Island Renewables
Shoreham Repowering Solar Pioneer
Wading River Repowering

Alternative Scenario Analysis

A short-list of alternatives of the most economic alternatives from the screening analysis will be used develop alternative scenarios or resource plans for LIPA. A detailed computer simulation will be used to capture the costs and benefits of each scenario. The advantage of this approach is that it rigorously models the interaction of the proposed resources with existing and potential new resources. A preliminary list of alternative resource plans that LIPA may examine in the Alternative Plan Analysis are listed in Table 2. Depending upon the final result of the Alternative Technology Assessment, these plans may be modified or deleted and new Alternative Plans may be added. In all the alternative scenarios that follow, resource requirements above and beyond that provided by the primary expansion alternatives would be met with the gas-fired combined cycle technology used in the Reference Case.
Table 2 – Alternative Scenarios for Consideration
1 Reference Case Scenario – The reference case provides a benchmark to which all alternative plans can be compared on a differential basis to determine the relative attractiveness of each scenario. It does not in any way represent LIPAs preferred energy plan. It assumes a reliance on gas-fired combustion turbine technology in a combined cycle configuration.
2 Efficiency Long Island1 (ELI) Only Scenario with Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) – A resource plan focused on ELI and LIPAs RPS Program.
3 Efficiency Only Scenario with RPS – A resource plan focused on energy efficiency in a manner designed to meet the Governors 15 x 15 Program (15% energy reduction by 2015) and LIPAs RPS Program.
4 Repowering Only Scenario with RPS – A resource plan focused on repowering of sites available to LIPA under the power plant purchase options (Barrett, Shoreham and Wading River) and LIPAs RPS Program.
5 ELI & Repowering Scenario – A resource plan using a combination of ELI, the repowering of Barrett 1 and LIPAs RPS Program.
6 15 x 15 Repowering Scenario – A resource plan using a combination of meeting the targets of the Governors 15X15 Program, the repowering of Barrett 1 and LIPAs RPS Program.
7 Environmental Focus Scenario – A resource plan using a combination of meeting the targets of the Governors 15 x 15 Program, the repowering of Barrett 1 and Shoreham, retirement of Far Rockaway and Glenwood stations, added wind power and fuel cells, as well as LIPAs RPS Program.
8 Market Access Scenario – A resource plan using a combination of meeting the targets of the Governors 15 x 15 Program, the repowering of Barrett 1, LIPAs RPS Program, upgrading the existing NUSCO transmission interconnection, and adding a second transmission interconnection to PJM.
9 Low Operating Cost Scenario – A resource plan using a combination of extending the existing Clean Energy Initiative (CEI), adoption of an Automated Metering Infrastructure (AMI) initiative, LIPAs RPS Program, upgrading the existing NUSCO transmission interconnection, adding a second transmission interconnection to PJM, and adding off-island nuclear and coal resources.

Evaluation Metrics

The alternative scenarios would be compared on the basis of several economic and environmental metrics shown in Table 3.
Table 3  Evaluation Metrics
Economic
1 Annual revenue requirements
2 Annual average rates
3 Net Present Value (NPV) total revenue requirements in 2009 dollars
Production Efficiency
4 Average heat rate of LIPA contracted/owned resources
Reliability Metrics
5 Surplus or deficit compared to projected NYISO locational requirement
6 Surplus or deficit compared to projected LIPA OP-CAP C requirement
7 Surplus or deficit compared to probability weighted versions of NYISO and LIPA requirements
Environmental Metrics
8 Projected SO2 allowances compared to SO2 emissions from LIPA contracted units
9 Projected NOX allowances compared to NOX emissions from LIPA contracted units
10 Energy weighted share of statewide CO2 RGGI emissions allowance compared to CO2 emissions from LIPA contracted units
11 Total LIPA footprint of SO2 emissions from LIPA contracted units plus market purchases of energy at ISO/RTO incremental emissions per MWh
12 Total LIPA footprint of NOX emissions from LIPA contracted units plus market purchases of energy at ISO/RTO incremental emissions per MWh
13 Total LIPA footprint of CO2 emissions from LIPA contracted units plus market purchases of energy at ISO/RTO incremental emissions per MWh
14 Assess alternative plans on $/ton of Carbon reduced or increased from the Reference Case

1 Efficiency Long Island is an Energy Efficiency Program that LIPA has been developing to replace and enhance the energy efficiency component of the Clean Energy Program. This program, which needs to be reviewed and approved by the LIPA Trustees, focuses on cost-effectively reducing customer peak load and energy consumption. It is also under consideration as a key component toward meeting the Governors 15 x 15 energy efficiency target.

One Response

  1. Letter to Mr. William Murphy
    Journalist
    Newsday

    I spoke at the roundtable “Alternative Energies, Myth or Magic?” on Friday, April 18, at Dowling College, sponsored by the Long Island Economic and Social Policy Institute, about LiquidAir Energy Group (LAEG) technologies. My presentation, which was titled, “Liquid Air Energy – the Only Energy,” was the first public discussion of LiquidAir Energy Group’s Model E 17.5 kW energy production unit. A cost, heat, and emissions-free generator that produces one barrel of oil-equivalent energy (420 kWh) per day.

    In response to your article, “Levittown lighting the way” (Newsday; Apr 18, 2008), I would like to offer the following from my 45 years in the metropolitan New York area energy industry, as well as a plan for the 17,000 homes in Levittown mentioned in your article, that will show how residents can change from being energy consumers to energy producers (on the order of a Broadwater LNG facility) where each consumer-producer receives a net $125 dollars per day for their energy production, which will bring about a very dramatic reversal for the issues outlined in your article. The following is a win-win approach for the people of Levittown, Long Island, America and the world.

    Energy Facts and Figures

    Energy is a straight-line event. You cannot exceed, or fail to satisfy, demand (oscillate) by more than 5%. Therefore, a fixed point, three-hour supply of solar energy, depending on the size of the grid, will not introduce more than a 10% maximum of the demand load at any point for either wind or solar. In addition, it still requires that the energy utility tie into to a central LIPA fossil fuel power plant for the remaining 21 hours a day. A 50 MW solar plant cost is $500 million or $10 a watt (50,000,000 watts/hr) over 20 years. A $500 million power plant is two times the initial cost over 20 years for plant and amortization alone). The total cost is $1 billion dollars. This leaves Long Island with a 75-cent kW per hour consumer end cost at two to three times what it is now, with no appreciable saving in oil use or oil cost. Your exposure to any forthcoming energy crisis will be much the same as it is now – an extreme risk.

    If you review the LAEG Web site (www.liquidairenergy.com), you will read that all fossil fuel burns at a waste factor of 75 to 80 percent (Andrew Rivkin, “A Shift in the Debate Over Global Warming” NYT; April 6, 2008), Since Long Island imports 100% of its fossil fuel, exposure to extreme price fluctuation is, to say the least, formidable. LIPA is currently hedged at $7/million BTU and LNG is currently selling in Japan at $14/million BTU – a 100% increase on current LIPA hedges when they expire. Add to this the fact LNG producers are expanding at a greater rate than oil and you will have LNG parity within three years. In addition, the one trillion barrel rumored global oil reserve is 75% waste, which leaves a 250 billion net reserve depleted at a rate of 100 million barrels a day (including 12 million barrels of bunker fuel that is slated to be discontinued over the next 10 years) for an actual 13-year oil resource life – at best – and a situation that is also super critical. And you are still only serving one billion people worldwide.

    A very stark reality about solar and/or wind energy is that these oscillating, expensive, zero capacity factor (require 100% redundancy) energy alternatives are elitist myths. There is no magic bullet from these technologies. Both of these energy sources are subject to profound interruptions, are cost prohibitive, and will never answer even a fraction of the growing worldwide energy demand.

    Relevance

    When discussing the “Levittown lights the way initiative,” if a person doesn’t have the money to buy the LIPA 74-cent/ Kwh to light the light that that they got for free that saves the energy only when light the bulb is lit, they are not saving any energy . If a person doesn’t have the money to pay the new 74-cent per kwh solar charge and the 150% inflationary fuel adjustment charge for the other 21 hours of central plant use in the LIPA bill, or for that matter the subprime mortgage that is on the home needed to light the bulb they got for free (that is now turned off in the foreclosed home the energy saving light bulb is in), there is also no energy savings.

    LiquidAir Energy Group Technologies – A Perfect Energy Solution

    The human body is a perfect energy engine. It produces 1 kW per hundred pounds of weight at 100% efficiency – four times the net energy efficiency of fossil fuel – using only air. LiquidAir Energy Group has, using this same energy model, developed a process that is 1000 percent the efficiency of fossil fuel (at 3,000 to 10,000 psi) without the cost, heat, or pollution. We have included for your review all the advantages of this energy discovery in our Web site, http://www.liquidairenergy.com.

    The LAEG Model E is the perfect energy answer for the people of Long Island, especially since the only requirements for its implementation are a signed LAEG License Agreement and access to the local LIPA utility grid. LiquidAir Energy Group’s astonishing hydrostatic, heat-free, ultra-efficient technology is the definitive solution needed to replace the destructive, finite and flawed oil-equivalent energy infrastructure. The Model E units can be manufactured using carbon fiber, making oil-equivalent resources more valuable as engine components than fuel.

    A STARK COMPARISON

    Diesel Generator Performance
    Piston Speed
    ft/ min Piston
    Force/psi Mechanical Advantage 1 kW
    /ft•lbf/min kW/ hr Gals per hour
    1181 57 3 in. 47000 10 1.2 gal

    LAEG technologies: 1000 percent the efficiency of fossil fuel (at 3,000 to 10,000 psi) without the cost, heat, or pollution.
    Model E 17.5kW Performance
    Piston Speed
    ft/ min Piston
    Force/psi Mechanical Advantage
    (torque) 1 kW
    /ft•lbf/min kW/hr Gals per hour
    200 300 24 47000 214 1 gal
    200 400 60 47000 715 1 gal
    200 500 120 47000 1,787 1 gal
    200 700 60 47000 1,251 1 gal
    200 1000 120 47000 3,574 1 gal
    1000 2000 120 47000 35,745 1 gal
    15,500 3000 120 47000 831,064 1 gal
    31,000 6000 120 47000 3,324,255 1 gal

    In addition to the obvious energy and environmental benefits, the initial economic impact of LiquidAir Energy Group technologies will be $125 a day, or $45,625 dollars a year, deposited into each licensee account for producing and selling into LIPA’s local grid one barrel of oil-equivalent energy per day.
    The LAEG potential timeline for production is one million units within six months, if we can elicit partnerships from the United Auto Workers, Ford, General Motors and Chrysler to manufacture them.

    I am assessing the best ways in which to move LiquidAir Energy Group technologies forward as quickly as possible as time is of the essence in today’s tumultuous state of world affairs. Promotion of LAEG technologies in Long Island’s energy infrastructure planning would be an excellent starting point for Long Island. I also look forward to the dialogue on the inevitable impact of this historic new direction of energy in all its other aspects.

    Yours truly,

    Nelson Stewart
    Chief Executive Officer

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