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First Wilderside LI Political Prediction for 2010: Suozzi, Cuomo, and King

Fortune Teller by Paulblais86Tom Suozzi hedges his bets:  AG or Congressman?

Suozzi said that he would not rule out politics, but that it would be the state or federal next time.  Suozzi sits on his million-dollar bank account the beginning of this year to see what move AG Andrew Cuomo makes.

If Cuomo seeks to primary David Paterson for Governor, then Suozzi files to run for the the attorney general seat.  He re-activates the state-wide contacts that he built in his seemingly-quixotic run against Spitzer.  (Newsday’s Joye Brown has predicted that this is Nassau DA Kathleen Rice‘s strategy also.  An all-Nassau primary for AG?  Not likely.)

Suozzi runs on an anti-corruption theme tying together his past activities.  His campaign echoes the successful anti-corruption themes of Democratic AG’s Eliot Spitzer and Cuomo.  Yet, Suozzi subtly reminds Democrats that if they had chose him in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, they would not have suffered the embarrassment of Spitzer’s resignation.  He ties in his campaign against small taxing districts as a breeding ground for corruption.  Finally, Suozzi spins his term as Nassau County  Executive as a successful fight against the entrenched corruption of decades of Republican rule in Nassau County.

Would he get Cuomo and Suozzi’s endorsement?  Cuomo would have to see the rest of the Democratic field before making an endorsement.  As Suozzi would be the 3rd down-stater with an Italian surname (after incumbent Comptroller Tom DiNapoli), he doesn’t bring much to the table for Cuomo.  Spitzer is unpredictable.  He made Suozzi his surrogate speaker for a while after winning the governorship.  With his commentating spots in the media, Spitzer is looking to get back into the game.  Would a Spitzer endorsement be a positive thing, is a polling question?

But what happens if Cuomo stays in the AG race? I don’t see even Suozzi trying to primary a sitting Governor from the position of having lost his County Executive race.  All the other statewide seats seem to be held by strong Democratic incumbents that it would not make sense to primary.

So a federal or state race would mean that Suozzi would have to look more local.  Rep. Peter King is the biggest target on LI.  As a Glen Cove resident, Suozzi should already be in King’s district.  Suozzi would paint King’s hard right posturing as out of touch with his district which supports more centrist rhetoric.  This would be the most well-known and well-funded opponent that King has been challenged by.

Suozzi will have to master the art of supporting Obama’s right-leaning policies that are cloaked in the language of the left.  Again, he will have to draw upon his experience of the right-leaning policy of opposing local taxing district while keeping his leftist credentials.  But he would do well not to raise this issue in a race as local as Congressman.  Taxing districts constituencies such as volunteer firefighters and teachers sway a lot of votes locally.  Suozzi would do well to examine their part in his County Executive loss, and mend those fences in a Congressional run.  Which would be the exact opposite strategy of a statewide race.

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